Chorwacja otwiera nowy resort zajmujący się kwestiami demograficznymi – ważny krok dla przyszłości kraju

Sanja Klempić Bogadi, an expert in demography at the Institute for Migration Studies, reminds us that Croatia already had a ministry dealing with „demography, family, youth, and social policy”, part of whose duties were taken over by the Central Office for Migration and Youth in 2020. „I am afraid that the fact that the issue will be dealt with by a 'ministry’ and not an 'office’ will not significantly improve the situation,” emphasizes the expert.

She points out that demographic problems have been politicized in Croatia for the past 10 years, a trend that has become more evident with the growing number of foreign workers filling gaps in the labor market. According to statistics from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the country’s population began to decline in 1991, when it stood at 4.8 million. By 2021, the population had decreased by about 900,000. „The war and the transition from a planned economy to a market economy accelerated the depopulation process,” explains Professor Czipin.

„The depopulation has particularly affected rural and less developed areas due to a lack of jobs and low wages. The significant emigration following EU accession, especially of young people, has also played a major role. It is estimated that several hundred thousand people have emigrated from Croatia since 2013, mainly to Germany, Austria, Ireland, and other developed countries. Emigration is fueled by wage differentials and differences in living standards, but also by educational, family, political, and other reasons, which should not be ignored,” she explains.

„The last census conducted in 2021 showed a decrease in population in all counties of Croatia. Today, Croatia is characterized by two demographic processes: depopulation and aging,” adds the analyst from the Institute for Migration Studies. Among the reasons cited by the experts for the country’s problems are long-term migrations, an aging population, and a low birth rate.

„Currently, the biggest demographic and economic problem is the lack of labor force. While we do not have exact data, it is estimated that between 300,000 and 400,000 people have emigrated from Croatia in the past ten years, the majority of whom were of working age. Labor shortages are not only due to emigration, but also to the premature retirement of part of the population due to transformation problems and the collapse of many companies,” reminds Bogadi.

In recent days, several ideas have emerged in the public debate in Croatia to address – or alleviate – the country’s demographic problems, including the possibility of attracting migrants from South America. „Bringing these people could have positive effects, but the number of Croats living abroad is regularly overestimated. It is ignored that some of them, although they have Croatian roots, have no connection to the ancestral country and do not identify with it. Potential immigrants from South America may be up to the fourth generation and may not speak Croatian. In recent years, similar ideas have not yielded results, so I am definitely skeptical now,” notes the expert.

Her assessment is shared by Professor Czipin, who emphasizes that „many so-called Croats come from mixed families, often having only one ancestor who emigrated from Croatia.” „Mass return of these individuals and their descendants seems more like wishful thinking than reality. Despite efforts to bring back the diaspora en masse, it seems that in the 1990s we missed this opportunity,” adds the expert from the University of Zagreb.

Experts point to the need to make efforts to prevent Croats from emigrating and to attract foreign workers, which could temporarily alleviate the problem. „The government should focus on retaining the current population in Croatia. It is also necessary to adopt a long-term immigration policy that can adequately respond to future economic needs. In discussions on demography, the importance of focusing on investments in education to increase human capital, essential for effective adaptation to demographic changes, is often ignored,” explains Bogadi.

„The state can have a much greater impact on migration than on other demographic processes. This can include providing financial incentives for returnees, facilitating bureaucratic procedures, providing easier employment in rare professions, or language education. Additionally, it is important to develop programs that facilitate the integration of immigrants into Croatian society. Leaving migration policy to the market and employers could increase anti-immigrant sentiments among the local population, something that should definitely be avoided by learning from the bad experiences of some developed countries,” emphasizes Professor Czipin.

He explains that attempts to increase child benefits often only affect the timing of births, not the ultimate number of children. „European demographers have found newborn benefits to be ineffective, while free kindergartens and flexible work organization have been considered the most effective measures,” he adds.

„Young couples need more flexible working conditions and actions in the housing policy area to help them become independent from their parents. Attempts to encourage parenthood through financial incentives often do not have a demographic effect, as recent examples from Poland have shown,” says Professor Czipin.

„In demography, it is often said that the past shapes the present and the future. Croatia’s demographic past, especially over the past three decades, has been unfavorable, so we cannot expect miracles and stop negative trends overnight. It should be noted that low fertility and high emigration should not be treated solely as a 'problem to be solved’, but as 'symptoms of other social problems.’ Demographic trends are mainly consequences, and the causes lie elsewhere,” summarizes the professor from the University of Zagreb.
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