Nadchodzi poważny kryzys finansowy po wielu latach – czy jesteśmy gotowi?

Paul Krugman, laureate of the Nobel Economic Prize, wrote on his blog last Thursday that the volatility and unpredictability of President Donald Trump’s policies are paralyzing the American business industry and threatening to repeat the „Lehman Brothers moment”, when the collapse of this bank marked the beginning of the financial crisis.

Krugman, a professor of economics at the University of New York and the London School of Economics, points out that there are signs in the market that could herald another financial crisis. Above all, the „uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies is as much a problem for the economy as his policies themselves”.

This situation „paralyzes businesses”: entrepreneurs and company boards are afraid to implement any long-term plans, as they may turn out to be a „disastrous mistake”. If a company builds a factory that relies on imports, tariffs could „cut off its legs”. And if plants are established whose success depends on maintaining tariffs, they could be crippled by a decision to lift tariffs, explains Krugman.

„I repeat, the issue is that there is no truly economic philosophy of MAGA, there is only what appeals (at any given moment) to Trump’s fragile ego,” emphasizes the Nobel laureate.

He explains that unfavorable signals regarding the economy include inflation, an increase in long-term interest rates on US government bonds, and the fact that liquidity in the capital markets is currently primarily guaranteed by hedge funds, but if they suffer due to „unpredictable policy”, it will cause „stress throughout the entire financial system”.

The „New York Times” writes on Thursday that Trump’s decision to suspend the imposition of tariffs for 90 days was „dictated by fear that his risky tariff move could turn into a financial crisis. And unlike the two previous collapses over the past 20 years – the global crisis of 2008 and the pandemic in 2020 – only one person would be responsible for this crisis”.

Read also: Trump suspends tariffs. „The first correct step towards de-escalation”

The „Wall Street Journal,” like Axios, assesses that Trump yielded on tariffs also due to the opinions of the most influential company heads. Particularly important were the opinions publicly expressed by Larry Fink, the CEO of the giant investment fund BlackRock, and Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase.

Fink announced that the chief executives of major corporations believe that the country is already entering a recession. Dimon published a note to shareholders on Monday, warning them that „recent tariffs are likely to increase inflation and prompt many (experts) to predict a potential recession”.

„It took weeks of declines in stock and bond markets, along with a relentless campaign by managers, congressmen, lobbyists, and foreign leaders, to convince Trump to withdraw the main element of his revolutionary tariff plan for 90 days,” sums up the „WSJ”.
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